AMPEL - update 7.16.21

In response to growing interest in AMPEL, this edition of The Blog will feature a quick recap of the organization, its vision, and recent development.

TL;DR - AMPEL invests in the emerging fields of additive manufacturing (aka, 3D printing) and edge networks then sells research/process data to organizations which want to integrate those methods into their operations. More importantly, AMPEL maintains an industrial platform which connects designers to manufacturers to distributors, and optimizes production. Since operations produce a mountain of data, analysis systems receive heavy investment.

The initial vision is discussed here and the blog is littered with periodic updates and project summaries. If you are an investor or partner reading this, I urge you to allocate 20 minutes or so and skim through this list:

AMPEL
September 2020
Structure and Division
October Evaluation
November 2020
April 2021
Sectors of Growth
Avionics Case Study
June 2021

Overview

The Additive Manufacturing Prototyping and Experimentation Laboratory was founded as it was recognized that this method of advanced manufacturing poses incredible opportunity and value. At its core, additive techniques wield significant advantages over traditional methods of manufacturing, such as injection molding, milling, etc. Additive boasts two core competencies which will allow it to outpace other methods: Design Complexity and Manufacturing Agility.

By nature additive is extraordinarily complex but will yield benefits as it can leverage those core competencies to achieve both economies of scale and economies of scope. This method of “making things” will explode as the bulk of human manufacturing moves off-planet and into space; the low- or zero-gravity frontier is optimal for additive techniques.

Understand that the financial logic behind AMPEL is a long-term play as the technology is still relatively young (first invented in 1983 by Chuck Hull). Experts across the board agree that additive manufacturing is nowhere near its potential and is starving for process research and development. In all honesty we see the road to profitability as long and tedious, prospectively 10+ years.

Most critically for you to understand is that, though we boast an organization centered around a method of manufacturing, AMPEL’s business model is not, I repeat not, based around the act of manufacturing. It is based on refined data and networks. Business occurs in several ways, listed from lowest priority to greatest:

1. Sale of 3D printed components. Yes this is the obvious one and has provided decent money in sales. Ultimately I do enjoy “making” things but this business model is extremely limiting.

2. Sale of 3D printers. I have a habit of buying consumer-grade printers, integrating complementary components and a network device (i.e. a brain), and reselling the item at a hefty markup. This is significantly more profitable than selling printed parts and flexes the ability to develop the Internet of Things.

3. Sale of market/process data. AMPEL is an intelligence company, and the accumulation of refined data grows a competitive advantage. My assault on this industry is accompanied by the scrupulous assembly of reports and analyses regarding processes, materials, organizations, and trends. On more than one occasion I have been blessed to visit or consult with organizations who wish to incorporate additive into their operations.

4. Sale of membership to the industrial platform. This is the true vision and value behind AMPEL and shall be discussed in depth below. Essentially we have architected a platform which connects designers to manufacturers to consumers, and returns mountains of data at each touch point with specialized feedback loops. This is the big kahuna, the money-maker. Unfortunately, this platform is extremely complex, probably the biggest, toughest equation I’ve encountered to date.

Before discussing the platform, let’s look at the evolution of the company.

R&D

To develop the platform, we first realized the importance of having a deep and perfect understanding of the fundamental processes behind additive manufacturing. Failure to do this would leave us unprepared for the challenges ahead. Thus R&D has dominated AMPEL operations since inception and tackled these areas:

1. Methods and processes: additive manufacturing comes in many forms but all are based around a fundamental concept: superheat a material, re-arrange it at the microscopic (or near microscopic level) in a desired pattern, harden it into the shape you have dictated, then repeat with another layer on top. Methods range from heated metal to laser sintering to UV curing, the physics of which must be understood at the fundamental level.

2. Materials science: from hard plastics to flexible plastics to metals to organic materials to conductive materials, a vast library of materials are capable of application through additive manufacturing. Research has documented how each acts and reacts in varieties of heat, humidity, gravity, etc.

3. Robotics: any 3D printer (indeed, any modern manufacturing machine) is essentially a large robot, moving along multiple axes and manipulating temperature. Computer and machine code has been studied in depth to understand syntax. This enables us to read error reports and write custom programs.

4. Wireless networks: as we intend to create a networked host of interactive, remote-controlled, and smart machines, the integration of edge network devices has been critical and begged a study of their application.

5. Big data: since just one program produces a mountain of data, we must devise a way to parse through and draw conclusions from the process. The smart devices which are integrated into the machines are equipped with sensors and programmed to react to stimuli. We will only continue to deepen these feedback loops. Also we sell this data as process information.

6. Product design: at the base of every 3D printing job is the product design. Countless hours have been sunk into studying design programs and many projects are designed in-house. Further, a system titled DfAM (Design for Additive Manufacturing) has been established which modifies components designed for traditional manufacture to take advantage of the core competencies of additive manufacturing. Recent integration of generative design has also been a game changer, though its vast power consumption keeps use cases limited.

To date the investment in experimentation and prototyping has produced some interesting projects which captured the attention of the community, driving sales of 3D printed components (remember, the least practical mode of operation). While we will continue to take manufacturing contracts, R&D continues apace, flushing the system with feedback and information. Thus armed with data, we embark on the development of the industrial platform.

The Platform

The true golden goose of the organization, the platform controls the fleet, connects member entities, analyzes data provided by members and feedback loops, prescribes changes, and organizes manufacturing operations. Complicated, right? It is. Here’s some characteristics:

1. Client integration: the platform allows members to tap into the library of data and, more importantly, demands that they contribute their own data. With powerful analysis systems the system will draw conclusions and make decisions which would be time-consuming and annoying to consider using traditional methods. This accumulation of data taps into the power of network effects but necessitates powerful analysis systems.

2. Smart contracts: the platform offers jobs to amateurs and professionals around the world. From product design to manufacture to physical distribution, members can bid for jobs to fulfill quotas. Professionals can apply for quality verification for priority selection and must submit to routine re-verification. Once established, these contracts are built on the ethereum blockchain and fulfill standards of “smart contracts”.
   The system will centralize order information before decentralizing production.

3. Operations optimization: having provided their data to the platform, members enjoy the benefit of the entire database which provides operational recommendations: inventory management, supply chain optimization, product design, manufacturing distribution, etc.

Key understanding: this platform taps into the power of big data and the attraction of network effects. The more organizations contribute data, more accurate decisions and conclusions will be drawn, which attracts more contributing organizations, which improves the decisions, and so on. These network effects establish a self-reinforcing loop.

Goals and Objectives - Long Term

It would be rather arrogant to think that AMPEL is the first to invest in developing an industrial platform like this. In fact, the platform’s architecture is based on a thorough study of production management platforms developed by major manufacturers: Jabil, GE, Siemens, to name a few. In line with the theory of network effects, there is an understood first mover advantage: whoever begins accumulating data and clientele first will be the most attractive and the snowball effect begins. AMPEL’s architecture is designed such that, pending platform sale or integration, it can integrate easily into a larger organization’s database just as AMPEL clients can integrate into our database. The ultimate goal is to work directly with a larger, established organization’s platform, like Jabil’s InControl system, after which AMPEL is directly modeled. Thus it becomes important to establish sound analysis systems before the flood.

Another long term goal is to be a leader in off-world manufacturing. As mentioned above, we perceive zero- and low-gravity environments to be the host of the bulk of human manufacturing in the future. Freed from the constraint of Earth’s single, downward force (9.8m/s^2), a vast frontier of opportunities opens up. Massive, monolithic structures can be constructed by additive technology emanating in every direction from the origin, rather than in one direction (up) under the stress of gravity The core competencies of additive manufacturing (design complexity and manufacturing agility) will also be exponentiated in this environment.

We intend to explore development in the medical field as additive presents a unique opportunity for deep customization with structural and organic materials. Already tens of thousands of dental implants are manufactured swiftly and accurately using stereolithography, one application of 3D printing. Other use cases involve prosthetics and bone replacements, all improved by the use of additive manufacturing.

I have often been quoted saying, “it is not hard to imagine a consumer grade 3D printer in most American homes in 15 years”. This echoes the claim of Steve Jobs who, in the 1980’s, speculated the same thing regarding the personal computer; Jobs was ridiculed by those who understood neither history nor the technology nor the power of networks. I am just as adamant in my vision, but this vision requires two great areas of change:

1. Technology: consumer 3D printers are currently bulky, obnoxious, and difficult to operate. Some specialized, expensive 3D printers are already being marketed to the rich but the user interface is still quite complicated. Given the rate of improvement and investment, only a fool would think that this complication will last. We will continue to see an evolution from industrial grade 3D printers to personal 3D printers just as we saw the evolution of industrial computers to personal computers. An evolution of technology is useless, though, unless accompanied by a thought revolution.

2. Education: this development of technology must (and will) be accompanied by the shifting competencies of the population. Partly from evolving curriculum and partly by being born into the 21st century, children today are much more competent at understanding electronics and networks than their parents. This will play directly into the acceptance of these machines into the home.

The decreasing complexity of the technology accompanied by an increasingly natural understanding of the underlying principles will converge, at which point the market for personal 3D printers will be ripe. This trend has its own dedicated line of research, but suffice it to say that this is a convergence which AMPEL intends to be well positioned for.

To hasten and control the timing of this convergence, AMPEL ought to be involved in educational/community makerspaces. This will allow AMPEL to give back to the community and give young people opportunities to augment a STEM education and pursue their passion. Exposure to 3D printing is a proven method of building student interest/excitement of scientific fields, developing creativity and entrepreneurship, and boosting self-confidence (MIT labs, 2018). We believe that these are traits worthy of investment.

Other long term goals include developing swarm technology, 3D printed circuit boards, and customized, wearable products. These long-term goals of AMPEL are truly massive, but we cannot let that deter us from taking steps toward them. In any event, these problems motivate us to pursue ways to solve them.

Goals and Objectives - Short Term

In the short term (6-9 months) here’s what I hope to accomplish:

1. Build the team. My team currently consists of an international network of designers and makers around the globe who collaborate on the platform to produce fantastic designs and fulfill manufacturing quotas. I would like to have a bit of a larger domestic team with the physical space to work together and develop technology. There is no doubt in my mind that, should I bring together even half a dozen curious minds who understand the fundamentals, challenges, and frontiers of additive manufacturing, we will produce incredible things.

2. Improve documentation. While media is an important part of the research process (video/audio recording accompanies nearly all equipment tests) I admit that I am not the best at producing this media. I see the media as a terribly important part of operations, as I discuss in this piece On Operational Media. The level of accompanying media will directly affect the organization’s influence on the market and its ability to attract members to the platform.

3. Printed electronics. Alas this is one area in which I have procrastinated, experienced failures, and procrastinated some more. Only one in five experiments with conductive material has proven successful (a 3D printed simple LED circuit) but with each failure we take away awesome data. Mastery of this technique is considered extremely valuable.

4. Beta test the platform. Understandably this is the most complicated part of the organization. The platform currently analyzes design needs and production capabilities to determine the best application to create a model. I would like to open this up to more partners and obtain professional assistance in the construction of the platform.

Conclusions

At this point it should be clear that the primary objective of AMPEL is not to be the manufacturer of advanced goods and technology, but rather to build the database and establish the platform which empowers others to do so. Along the way we are having some serious fun learning the technology fundamentals and compiling the database which offers a competitive advantage to those platform members who intend to tackle the opportunities of additive manufacturing.

The most powerful resource of the 21st century is data, a resource we intend to take control of. The most powerful weapon of the 21st century is a system which productively analyzes and applies that data, a weapon we intend to construct and make available to member organizations.

Comments or input? I’d love to hear from you.